“Therefore keep watch, because you do not know the day or the hour.” – Matthew 25:13

Alabama’s primary election day is fast approaching. Maybe faster than you realize.

Getting a handle on when Alabama holds its primary election is bit like skeet shooting. The target is always on the move.

Traditionally, Alabama held its primary elections in June, but the last several primaries during presidential election years have been moved to early March. This is because Alabama desired to have more of a say in whom Democrats and Republicans choose for their presidential nominees.

Oftentimes – though not always, as we have seen in recent presidential elections – one candidate from each party has emerged as a clear frontrunner based on the results of earlier primaries, and states with later presidential primaries are frequently forced to rally behind those frontrunners.

In my voting history, the date for the nonpresidential primary elections in which we vote for governor along with most of the statewide executive branch offices and the state legislature always fell on the first Tuesday of June.

But a change in state law pushed that date up to the fourth Tuesday of May beginning with the 2022 election cycle. This year, however, the fourth Tuesday of May will fall right after the Monday Memorial Day holiday.

Holding an election the day after a holiday would cause complications with site preparation, equipment set up, and getting the necessary number of election staff and poll workers back from the lakes and beaches in time to run the polling sites.

In anticipation of this, the Legislature passed a law last year to move up the primary even earlier. Nonpresidential primary elections will now be held on the Tuesday before Memorial Day. This year that day is May 19.

There is no obvious answer when it comes to choosing dates for primary elections. Moving the election back to June risks losing many voters to being away on vacation as kids begin their extended summer break from school.

On the other hand, most schools will still be in session on May 19, and some schools serve as polling places in quite a few jurisdictions in the state. This could create a higgledy-piggledy environment on campuses in addition to squeezing the time available for school staff to vote.

My preference is to choose whatever date will produce the highest voter turnout. Seems simple enough, but any political scientist can tell you predicting turnout without the benefit of knowing anything about the political context is a fool’s errand.

According to records from the Alabama Secretary of State’s Office, the highest voter turnout in the four gubernatorial primaries since 2010 came in 2018 – though even that turnout was only a paltry 25.6 percent of registered voters.

This might lead you to believe maybe we should have kept the primary election in June. Yet the May 2022 primary turnout was slightly higher than the June 2014 and June 2010 primaries.

Why did the 2018 primary have the highest turnout? My guess would be because it followed the Robert Bentley scandal. Scandal and mudslinging are among the strongest motivators to get people to go vote, which is why you are now being bombarded with negative political advertising.

This year both Republicans and Democrats appear set with their candidates for governor, the highest-profile race on the ballot, so maybe we should expect a low turnout.

However, the races for other offices such as lieutenant governor, attorney general and U.S. senator have been especially spicy, so maybe turnout will tick upwards.

Beyond the date and the politics, there is research showing a factor as minor as a rainy day can depress voter turnout.

Knowing that, one might think voter turnout in the North Carolina counties that received the worst of Hurricane Helene in 2024, which hit the state less than six weeks before the November election, would cause turnout to drop significantly as voters in that area might be more focused on piecing their lives back together.

The opposite happened.

Turnout in western North Carolina was slightly higher than the rest of the state. When people are faced with the possibility of losing the opportunity to vote, such as when natural disasters threaten the ability of governments to hold elections, it can serve as greater motivation for them to vote.

It would be wonderful if people remembered the ability to vote is a tremendous privilege without disaster befalling, but if voting on the Tuesday before Memorial Day simply will not do for you, fear not. Recent history shows it might change again by the time 2030 rolls around.