“Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.” – Alexander Pope

It was only around five short months ago when I offered you, beloved reader, some of my thoughts about what to look out for in Alabama government and politics in 2025.

One of the topics I thought was worth following was how the 2026 race for governor began to take shape, and it certainly has been interesting.

I also offered the following take, “It is apparent Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth plans to run, but who will challenge him?” Given Ainsworth’s announcement last week that he will not run for any office next year, it is clear my chickens were numbered but still in their eggshells.

But allow me a few sentences to try to weasel my way out of the blame for my crystal ball’s fuzzy reception. I still believe Ainsworth himself was fully committed to running for governor in the first part of this year.

What changed? An unexpected challenger emerged in the form of U.S. Sen. Thomas Hawley Tuberville. Reports of Tuberville flirting with the idea of running for governor have been floating around for months, and he is expected to officially announce his candidacy this week.

As Tuberville’s interest in running for governor grew, followers of Ainsworth’s social media accounts could almost track Ainsworth’s waning resolve to run.

On March 5, Ainsworth posted on his X.com account a link to a Yellowhammer News article about Tuberville’s possible run. He included a picture of himself in athletic wear saying he was getting into “running shape” and adding, “Looks like the 2026 governor’s race may be shaping up to be one for the history books.”

On April 28, his Facebook post asked his followers to weigh in on if he should stay in the governor’s race, run for Senate if Tuberville runs for governor or leave public service altogether.

On May 12, his X.com account reposted a report from 1819 News quoting him saying he had ruled out running for Senate. He announced he was not entering the governor’s race nine days later.

Ainsworth probably feared the instant name recognition a former Auburn football coach carries as well as the likelihood President Donald Trump would throw his support behind Tuberville in a race between the two men given the extraordinary lengths to which Tuberville has gone in order to hitch his political fortunes to Trump’s.

Tuberville is now a clear favorite to be elected governor next year. Nevertheless, his interest in running for governor in the first place is what has surprised me the most.

To me he seems to be a much better fit as a senator where he is able to serve as an extension of Trump’s administration in promoting Trump’s policies in the Senate.

Maybe he believes he can have a greater effect on government as a governor. Although, I do not know of him having any specific vision for government outside of attacking Democratic policies.

The only significant legislation on which he has been a prominent figure that I can remember is his attempt to craft nationwide legislation to regulate the payment of college athletes, but that went nowhere fast. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) seems to be leading that charge now.

Being a governor requires much more of a day-to-day commitment to managing people and providing direction to state agencies. Even going back to his coaching days, these duties do not strike me as Tuberville’s strong suit.

Furthermore, while governor is the most high-profile political position in Alabama, the office is not especially powerful. The Legislature holds most of the cards when it comes to establishing a political agenda for the state.

And finally, Tuberville has to overcome a controversy concerning how long he has been a resident of Alabama. Tuberville owns a couple of properties in Santa Rosa Beach, Fla., and reportedly often stays in Florida when he is not in Washington, D.C., though he owns properties in Alabama, too.

The state constitution requires someone to be a resident of the state for seven years leading up to being elected as governor, a stricter residency requirement than it takes to be a U.S. senator. Nonetheless, the constitution does not provide a clear definition for what establishes residency.

I would imagine a completely Republican Alabama Supreme Court would give Tuberville the benefit of the doubt on his residency, if possible.

But what do I know? My popcorn was popped, and I was ready to watch an Ainsworth-for-governor campaign play out. Maybe Tuberville has greater foresight than I possess. My crystal ball is in the shop at the moment.